His defiance in the face of the attempted assassination strengthening his campaign
Donald Trump may have just won the 2024 election.
There’s a phenomenon in American presidential politics called the “rally around the flag” effect. When a presidential candidate is in trouble, he often sees a boost in the polls. This effect stems from a kind of “my country (and president) right or wrong” mentality.
One of the first times this effect was measured was after the Bay of Pigs incident during the Kennedy administration. The U.S. had backed a CIA/military plan to invade Cuba and incite a counter-revolution. Ex-pat Cubans were recruited for the mission, and Kennedy reportedly chose the landing site, known as the Bay of Pigs, himself.
Despite the invasion being an abject failure and an act of unjustified aggression, Kennedy’s public approval ratings went up.
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Similarly, President Lyndon Johnson saw a rally effect during his controversial handling of the Vietnam War. At the time, it was not widely known that Johnson had helped manufacture or at least exaggerate an attack on an American ship in Vietnam’s Gulf of Tonkin. This deceit led to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, giving Johnson the power to wage an undeclared and largely unconditional war in Vietnam. Despite the growing body count, rampant drug addiction in the military, domestic protests, and a deeply divided country, public opinion initially supported the war. Interestingly, most reporters were either neutral or supportive, with only a few, like CBS’s Morley Safer and David Halberstam, being critical.
Trump, however, is a former president, not a sitting one, making the “rally around the flag” effect somewhat strained. But another phenomenon may be at play: the “assassination effect.” While no direct analogies can be drawn, it’s worth noting that when President Ronald Reagan was shot and nearly died, his humour, resilience, and recovery significantly boosted his approval ratings. Trump’s defiant stance, symbolized by his iconic clenched fist, could evoke a similar response from his supporters. Images of him with blood on his face might become powerful symbols in campaign ads, bolstering his image of strength and highlighting perceived weaknesses in President Joe Biden.
There are numerous variables and unknowns to consider. The president, the cause of the trouble, public reactions to the event, and other unforeseen issues will all influence the outcome. Some Trump supporters are already claiming that the real threat to democracy comes from the left, not the right. They argue that recent actions and rhetoric from the left are undermining democratic principles. Others are openly blaming Biden and the Democrats, who have been vocal in asserting that Trump’s election would spell the end of democracy and freedom.
While this accusation is often seen as exaggerated to the point of absurdity, it might have played a role in escalating tensions and potentially inciting violence.
Although not directly applicable to Trump, the assassination effect provides a useful lens through which to understand how leaders can gain sympathy and support through perceived victimization and resilience. For instance, Reagan’s rise in popularity after surviving an assassination attempt showcased the public’s tendency to rally behind a leader displaying strength and humour in the face of adversity. Trump’s ability to capitalize on his legal and political battles could evoke a similar sentiment among his base.
While it’s too early to predict the outcome of the 2024 election definitively, recent events have undoubtedly increased the likelihood of a Trump victory. The dynamics of American politics are complex and ever-changing, with numerous factors influencing voter behaviour. However, the rally around the flag and assassination effects highlight how crises can paradoxically strengthen a candidate’s position.
Ultimately, the next few months will be crucial in determining the political landscape. As the country navigates through these turbulent times, the interplay between public perception, media coverage, and political manoeuvering will shape the narrative leading up to the election. Whether Trump’s current predicament will solidify his path to victory remains uncertain, but it’s clear that the possibility of his comeback has just increased.
Allan Bonner has advised a dozen heads of government and several dozen international diplomats and clients in dangerous situations. He has rehearsed leaders for nationally televised debates in English and French.
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