By Mark Milke and Lennie Kaplan Canadian Energy Centre When forecasting future oil consumption around the world, many people have opinions and agendas. Forecasts rooted in facts and technological capabilities are more rare. An example of an informed opinion comes from Vaclav Smil, professor emeritus of the University of Manitoba’s Faculty of Environment. Smil is…
The crude oil demand picture remains murky at best. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its 2021 demand growth outlook to 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd), 500,000 bpd lower than projected last month. Based on patterns, the EIA now expects Chinese demand to grow by one million bpd next year rather than…
Despite some oil industry analysts and observers looking at the glass as half full, there still seems to be ample reasons for gloom
Forecasting crude oil markets remains a matter of perspective. Global oil demand growth is expected to taper off, journalist and analyst Julianne Geiger says, referencing the latest report from energy consultancy IHS Markit. Crude oil demand sits at 89 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, IHS Markit says. It’s expected to rise, then level off at…
Supported by all these bullish factors, Brent crude spot prices rose. Yet oil markets also face bearish pressures
Faced with gloom and some good news at the same time, crude oil markets continue to be in a quandary. Retrenchment and lack of capital investment could eventually lead to crude shortages, argued David Messler in a piece in Oilprice.com in June. The shortage could result in firming up of oil prices. Messler also points…
The game is up: Oil and gas companies can no longer mask their financial frailty
The decline in oil demand accelerated by Covid-19 may be a sign of the future. Forty publicly-traded U.S. oil producers wrote down a collective $48 billion worth of the value of their assets in the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. Quoting Deloitte, Oilprice.com points out that the collapse in crude…
As the fight against this unprecedented global pandemic continues, a renewed focus on delivering a realistic plan that will support Canada’s economic recovery has never been more important. Canada has worked hard to contain the spread of COVID-19. This is a credit to the leadership our public health officers across Canada have provided, and to…
Opinion remains divided but, to be fair, the crude oil market is not out of woods. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, is endeavouring to take a positive posture. Politically, he needs to stay positive. Global oil demand is likely to recover to above pre-pandemic levels, Birol said on July 6.…
But a true recovery in oil prices will require an economic recovery, whose timing remains unclear
While there’s certainly carnage and woe in the oil and natural gas sectors at the moment, reports of the death of the industry are exaggerated. Many climate change activists and their sympathizers have been cheered by the dramatic drop in oil prices that coincided with, and were partly caused by, the COVID-19 pandemic. Prominent among…
The long-term view is frightening. With long gestation periods, new oil and gas projects may not get online when needed
International oil and gas exploration and production are in the doldrums and won’t likely rebound any time soon. Canada has curtailed its crude output by one million barrels per day (bpd). The country’s active oil and gas rig count had fallen to an all-time low of 17 in early June, Baker Hughes reported. That was…
Provincial governments need to be sober, disciplined, realistic and do whatever they can to not lose money for their citizens
While crude oil’s startling and unprecedented recent price plunge into negative territory was notable, it didn’t mean that producers were actually paying others to take oil off their hands. It did point to major problems the industry faces, however. In the short term, the foremost issue is weak demand. And it raised a significant problem…